Publicaties

The short-term outlook remains satisfying, but Brexit will surely have a major impact on domestic car sales and British car exports in the mid-term.

Besides the risk of a sales downturn, the economic policies of the Trump administration could pose a potential challenge for the US car industry.

As more and more carmakers rush to enter into the electric and hybrid car segment, annual capacity in China is about to exceed 7 million units by 2020.

Automotive suppliers´ margins remain structurally under pressure, as the powerful car manufacturers demand greater productivity, coupled with lower prices.

The level of insolvencies in the automotive sector is low compared to other Italian industries, and business failures are expected not to increase in 2017.

A large number of small supplier businesses could face higher business and credit risks in the future as margins have declined and challenges increase.

The automotive sector faces decreasing domestic sales due to a decrease in population and a growing share of elderly citizens as well as tax hikes.

The Spanish automotive industry continues to benefit from the on-going economic rebound of the domestic economy as well as from increasing car exports.

The increasing importance of Big Data and embedded technology/electronics is expected to lead to increased M&A activities in the supplier segment.

Robust sales have kept profit margins of car producers and suppliers stable, and these are expected to maintain their current level in the coming months.

Due to the robust economic performance thus far in 2017 the outlook for the automotive sector remains favourable for the rest of the year and in 2018.

Most businesses in the automotive sector should be financially resilient enough to cope with some minor volatility in demand or exchange rate fluctuations.

Atradius forecasts insolvencies across advanced markets to fall by 3.0% this year and 2.0% next year, particularly led by an increasingly robust recovery in the eurozone.

Trump’s threats to revise NAFTA and build a wall at the Mexican border could offer new trade opportunities for businesses in relations with Mexico.

China is rebalancing its economy away from exports and investments towards consumption. This is weighing on GDP growth of its trading partners.

GDP growth is expected to slow down to about 1.5% in 2017 and 2018, as lower revenues from oil and gas exports negatively impact government investments.

GDP growth will decrease in 2017 as sharp inflation increase restrains consumer demand, but in the medium-term the economy should benefit from reforms.

Reforms have been made to diversify the economy by developing manufacturing and providing a favourable investment environment. But stumbling blocks remain.

With the oil price well below its fiscal break-even level of around USD 78, the government still faces the challenge of keeping a tight grip on spending.

Tackling bureaucracy and reforming the tax and subsidy systems are necessary to improve the economic conditions and to reduce the high unemployment rate.

So far the UAE has weathered the global oil price slump relatively well, supported by its increasingly diversified economy and ample foreign assets.

The Chinese chemicals industry has entered a phase of lower but still solid growth, with chemicals demand growth rates still above global average.

Producers are looking to take further advantage of low natural gas prices in the US, which enables the significant expansion of methane-based projects.

Profit margins of British chemicals businesses could be negatively affected by domestic economic uncertainty over the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.

Despite a rebound agrichemicals remains susceptible to sudden changes of exogenous factors like climate, market prices and exchange rate fluctuations.

The Italian chemicals industry continues to benefit from a rebound in domestic demand, however fiscal crimes plague the fuel wholesalers segment.

The sector records solid growth rates, but caution is advised with smaller fuel wholesalers and stations due to a grey economy in fuel trade in the past.

The robust economic growth has led to rising demand for petrochemical products, while the rubber and plastics are benefitting from automotive demand.

Indonesian chemicals sector growth is driven by demand from the construction and automotive industries and an increasing population with rising incomes.

The industry remains affected by the slowdown in the country´s economic performance, which has led to lower investments and decreased public spending.

Chemicals production growth is expected to increase about 2.5% in 2017 and 2018 while payment delays and insolvencies will remain at very low level.

Market sentiment is a vulnerability for South Africa due to its current account deficit and the dependency on portfolio-investments for financing it.

Despite the ongoing fragility a GDP rebound is forecast in 2017, and while some industries are expected to benefit from it, others remain subdued.

One year after the UK vote to leave the EU, cracks are beginning to show in the economy. This Atradius report offers an update on the current situation and insolvency outlook.

ICT sales growth is slowing down, and in some segments requests to prolong payment terms and overdue payments have increased since the end of 2015.

Despite robust growth rates, pricing pressure and cheap imports are key challenges in the domestic ICT market, especially for smaller IT distributors.

ICT growth is expected to slow down in 2017 as increased economic uncertainty is affecting household consumption growth and business investments.

It still remains to be seen to what extent the Trump administration´s policies will impact the US market for information and communication technology.

Despite overall growth, many French ICT companies face structurally low margins, price pressure and an on-going consolidation process in the market.

Due to limited organic growth opportunities and the on-going economic uncertainty, market players strive to expand through acquisitions and specialisation.

Despite continued sales growth, most German ICT businesses operate on very tight margins due to fierce competition and price erosion in most subsectors.

On average, payments in the ICT sector take between 30 and 90 days. Business culture promotes prompt payment, and therefore the number of delays is low.

Payment behaviour in the South Korean ICT sector has been good over the past two years, and the number of payment delays and insolvencies is low.

As in 2016 the ICT market remains characterised by high competition, single-digit margins, low entry barriers and stagnating growth in some segments.

The first hint of spring is in the air leaving this Economic Outlook in a position of cautious optimism.

After an increase of almost five percentage points in 2016, the percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Eastern Europe decreased again this year (41.5%).

The percentage of overdue B2B invoices in the Czech Republic continued its downward trend. In 2017, the country’s payment default rate stood at 37%.

The percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Hungary decreased in 2017. At 29.7%, the payment default rate in the country is far under the regional average.

Overdue B2B invoices occurred more often with the domestic customers of our Polish respondents (41.0%) than with their foreign customers (36.6%).

The percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Slovakia decreased from 48.0% in 2016 to 41.5% this year. This is in line with the regional average (41.5%).