Will the White House derail the global transport industry?

Sector growth predicted, tariffs allowing

It seems that every industry outlook needs a disclaimer these days that reads something like: “modest growth is anticipated, although US tariffs may impact this”. Our most recent Industry Trends Report on the global transportation and logistics industry fits into this pattern. Pre-tariff predictions point towards global growth of around 4% in both 2025 and 2026. Will this prediction play out as expected? We have to wait and see what, where, when and if US tariffs are imposed. But the question of tariffs aside, there is still much to take from the insights supplied by our industry experts.

Maritime costs remain elevated

Although growth is anticipated for all subsectors, we expect to see costs and prices remain high for the shipping segment. Shipping is still facing challenges such as higher insurance premiums and rerouting to avoid the Red Sea region. Air freight is the winner here, benefitting from businesses swapping sea for air for time-sensitive deliveries, alongside the rise in ecommerce.

India leads global growth predictions

Indian transportation and logistics output is forecast to grow by 11.1% in 2025 and by 7.5% in 2026. This is significantly higher than the Asia Pacific regional average which is expected to be about 4.4% in 2026, and other major global markets for the same year, (Americas 3.3% and Europe 2.7%). 

The Make in India campaign is a clear driving force for sector growth supported by increasing demand for consumer goods among the growing middle class. That said, investments in infrastructure are needed to reduce potential bottlenecks.

Subdued picture in Europe

Sector growth is predicted for the eurozone, but this will be achingly slow and may touch 2% in 2025 with fair wind of economic recovery, allowing for any US tariffs and any deteriorating of Europe-US relations of course. Germany is still struggling with low GDP growth and this is reflected in subdued growth predictions for the transportation and logistics industry. Growth is likely to be a little stronger in the UK (2.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026). Downside risks include labour shortages and transitioning to electric vehicles. Insolvency risks remain high.

Private consumption drives transport growth

Sector growth of around 3% is expected in the US over the next couple of years, with the region cushioned from challenges such as Red Sea rerouting and, in the US, private consumption driving growth.

There are some risks, however. Restrictive immigration policies could further exacerbate labour shortages. Sector growth would be massively impacted by any high tariffs on US neighbours’ Canada and Mexico. 

Download our Transport & Logistics Industry Trends 2025 report