GDP to remain steady through 2026 despite global uncertainty

AI-related investment to drive modest GDP growth in face of wider challenges

It’s now a full year since the US President Donald Trump unleashed the tariffs that have been a significant feature of his second term of office and a major cause of uncertainty in global trade. And while it is fair to say that tariffs and policy uncertainty remain, key indicators of the global economic outlook are pointing to stability. At very least we expect to see a more stable insolvency environment in 2026 after what has been a fairly eventful 2025.

Geopolitics and conflict can lead to instability

Before we explore the key drivers of global GDP growth and any softening of credit risk and insolvencies, it is important to inject a note of caution. As we saw with the energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, geopolitical tensions and conflicts can impact key markets, affect inflation and lead to heightened credit risk. 

While it is too early to ascertain the global economic impact of the conflict between the US and Israel with Iran, early indications suggest an uptick in oil prices. However the key issue looming on the near horizon will be how long the conflict will impact access to the Strait of Hormuz. 

This is a key route for global shipments of oil and LNG. Any prolonged disruption to shipping in the area could result in heightened economic pressures.

Is AI currently keeping GDP growth steady?

Putting any potential Middle-East energy shock to one side, our indicators suggest AI-related investment and fiscal support will keep GDP growth steady in 2026. As outlined in the most recent Atradius Economic Outlook , AI-related investment has resulted in an unprecedented boom.

The US enjoyed a 1.7 percentage points boost of GDP-growth driven by enormous investments into AI-related infrastructure during the first half of 2025, including data centres, chip manufacture and power upgrades. 

Other markets in the US AI-value chain also benefitted from the AI-boom during 2025, including Taiwan, Vietnam and Mexico. Looking ahead, growth in the world’s emerging markets is likely to come down slightly in 2026 as US tariffs and domestic investments start to slow external demand.

Our most recent estimates show that eurozone GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the final quarter of 2025. This was thanks in large part to robust expansion in Spain, despite the braking effects of constrained growth in France and Germany. 

Overall, sentiment indicators at the start of 2026 for the eurozone remained fairly positive. Falling outside of this optimism is the UK, where the outlook remains lacklustre. This could still change, however, as the Purchasing Managers’ Index is pointing to 51.8 as output and export orders accelerate. 

What is the economic landscape beyond AI-related growth?

When we look beyond the demand for power, chips and data centres, consumer sentiment in many markets is subdued. Trade across most markets is volatile, with the US tariffs driving uncertainty and, in many cases, a pause on investments.

We should also be alert to the risks associated with a potential burst in the AI-bubble. When we modelled this downside scenario, our research suggested stocks in US technology companies could plummet by as much as 25%, with significant knock-on effects on consumer spending and household wealth. In turn, corporate investment would be reined in and business sentiment across the world would deteriorate, resulting in lower global GDP growth. 

While the impact of a bursting AI-bubble would be most severe for the US and the major technology exporters in Asia-Pacific, the ripple effect would be felt across most regions throughout the world.

For now, at least, the global economic outlook is fairly benign. Inflation has largely levelled out, insolvencies are slowing, and modest global GDP growth is predicted.
 

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