Atradius releases Q3 updates on over 500 industry forecasts globally

We have released an updated industry forecast per market for Q3 2026, providing business performance and credit risk assessments from our underwriters. The chart covers key sectors across representative markets in Europe, the Americas, and Asia-Pacific, reflecting global economic activity.

In total, 555 forecasts have been issued. Of these, 140 fall into low-risk categories, 200 are rated as moderate risk, and 215 fall into the high-risk category. This represents an increase of 21 sectors in the high-risk group since January 2026. 

Forecasts for food, pharmaceuticals, financial services, electronics/ICT, and agriculture are more favourable than the overall benchmark. Machinery and engineering and services remain at mid-range risk levels. Transport, automotive, consumer durables, and paper show elevated risk. The most negative outlook is concentrated in construction, metals and steel, and textiles.

Europe: Changes since April 2026

Belgium

Food – down from fair to poor

Higher prices and inflation are reducing consumer spending on non-essential food products. Non-payments and credit insurance claims have increased, particularly in the wider food products segment.

Metals/Steel – up from bleak to poor

We have observed a certain decrease in non-payments and credit insurance claims. However, weak steel demand across Europe continues to affect the sector. Strong international competition, high energy costs and margin pressure remain key challenges.

Transport – down from poor to bleak

Higher energy costs are squeezing profit margins across the sector. Slow economic growth in Europe is also reducing transport volumes. At the same time, tariffs and trade restrictions are creating uncertainty in global trade. Non-payments and credit insurance claims have significantly increased in the sector.

Denmark

Automotive – down from fair to poor

German original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) continue to struggle with decreasing output and sales. This has reduced demand for Danish automotive suppliers throughout the supply chain.

The Americas: Changes since April 2026

United States

Construction – down from fair to poor

High energy costs and interest rates continue to weigh on the sector. Tariffs are increasing the cost of key materials, including aluminium, copper, and steel. Weaker construction employment also adds to the pressure. We expect US construction output growth to slow to 0.6% this year.

Asia/Oceania: Changes since April 2026

Australia

Transport – down from fair to poor

Higher fuel costs linked to the Gulf conflict are increasing operating expenses for road transport companies. Non-payments and credit insurance claims have increased compared with last year.

Indonesia 

Chemicals – down from good to fair 

The Gulf conflict has pushed up the cost of oil, naphtha, and petrochemical feedstocks. Indonesia's chemical industry relies heavily on imported raw materials, making it vulnerable to these increases. Higher input costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions are likely to reduce profitability, put margins under pressure and weaken demand from downstream industries.

Japan

Chemicals – up from fair to good

The sector should benefit from stronger exports and a recovery in global industrial demand. Japan is also increasing imports of naphtha and crude oil from sources outside the Middle East. This helps to reduce its exposure to potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Construction – down from fair to poor

Higher energy costs and increased economic uncertainty are discouraging building investment. Pressure on company earnings is also limiting commercial construction spending. The sector continues to face long-term challenges; including labour shortages, rising costs, and an ageing population.

New Zealand

Transport – down from fair to poor

Higher fuel costs linked to the Gulf conflict are increasing operating expenses for road transport companies. Non-payments and credit insurance claims have increased compared with last year.

Singapore

Services – down from fair to poor 

This is the sector's second downgrade this year. Rising living costs, persistent inflation and intense competition continue to challenge businesses. Company closures are increasing, particularly among restaurants. Non-payments and credit insurance claims have further increased.

What is the industries forecast per market?

The Atradius industries forecast per market is a global chart that provides an expert view of business performance and credit risk across different sectors and markets. It covers 15 major industries in 37 representative economies. Each sector-market combination is assigned an opinion - excellent, good, fair, poor, or bleak - based on the insights of Atradius’ specialised risk analysts.

• Excellent: Strong credit risk situation and robust business performance
• Good: Benign credit risk with performance above long-term trends
• Fair: Average credit risk and stable business performance
• Poor: Relatively high credit risk with below-trend performance
• Bleak: Poor credit risk situation and weak business performance

These underwriters work from centres of expertise around the world, ensuring that every assessment reflects local realities and is informed by on-the-ground knowledge. This approach highlights the strength of Atradius’ risk management system and its ability to anticipate challenges in global trade.

Important note: While the chart offers a powerful overview, it is important to remember that risk does not reside in countries or sectors but in individual buyers. That is the true value of credit insurance: the ability of our underwriters to deliver a guaranteed, near-instant opinion on virtually any buyer worldwide, enabling businesses to trade with confidence.

To explore to strengthen your own credit risk strategy, get in touch with us and see how we can help you stay ahead.