Performance outlook for over 500 industries globally, Q4 2026

We have released an updated industry forecast per market for Q4 2026, providing business performance and credit risk assessments from our underwriters. The chart covers key sectors across representative markets in Europe, the Americas, and Asia-Pacific, reflecting global economic activity.

In total, we have issued 555 forecasts. Of these, 139 fall into low-risk categories, 199 are rated as moderate risk, and 217 fall into the high-risk category. This represents an increase of 23 sectors in the high-risk group since January 2026. 

Forecasts for food, pharmaceuticals, financial services, electronics/ICT, and agriculture are more favourable than the overall benchmark. Machines/engineering and services remain at mid-range risk levels. Transport, automotive, consumer durables, and paper show elevated risk. The most negative outlook is concentrated in construction, metals/steel, and textiles.

Europe: Changes since July 2026

France

Metals/Steel – down from fair to poor

French metal and steel producers face increasingly difficult conditions. Higher input prices are putting more pressure on margins and working capital. Demand remains weak, particularly from the automotive and construction, which are key buyer. Excess global capacity and intense competition are also affecting trading activities. However, higher metal prices supported recycling businesses in the first half of 2026.

Hungary

Agriculture – down from good to fair

We expect agricultural output to fall by 8.5% this year. Recurring droughts and water shortages have negatively affected crop production. Energy, fertiliser, feed and financing costs remain high. In the meat sector, the pork segment faces rising costs, labour shortages, and disease concerns. These pressures are weakening margins. We expect credit insurance claims in the agricultural sector to increase in the coming months.

Food – down from good to fair

We expect Hungarian food production to fall by 3.3% this year. Recent high food inflation has reduced consumers’ purchasing power and held back domestic sales volumes. Local processors face strong competition from foreign brands. Large retail chains also have considerable bargaining power, putting further pressure on margins. Competition is particularly intense in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) segment. This puts Hungarian businesses at a disadvantage compared with larger foreign competitors.

The Netherlands

Electronics/ICT – up from fair to good

Artificial intelligence, cloud services and continued digitalisation are attracting substantial investment. In 2025, 33% of Dutch businesses used at least one of eight measured artificial intelligence technologies. This share increased from 23% in 2024. We expect information and communication output to grow by 3.6% this year. Continued investment in data centres is supporting electronics and information and communication technology businesses.

Portugal

Consumer durables – up from poor to fair

Portugal’s consumer durables sector benefits from a moderately favourable environment. Private consumption is forecast to grow by 3.1% in 2026. We expect consumer durables sales to increase by 4.4%. This follows subdued performance over the past three years. However, high housing and living costs continue to put pressure on household budgets. Global uncertainty could also weaken consumer confidence and spending.

Spain 

Paper – down from fair to poor

We expect pulp and paper production to remain broadly unchanged in 2026 and 2027. Demand remains resilient in some segments, but producers face significant cost pressures. The war in the Middle East has increased pressure on margins due to higher energy, chemical, and freight costs. Strong competition from Asian producers makes it harder for companies to pass these costs to customers. The sector also requires substantial capital investment. Rising financing costs and falling revenues in Spain and Europe are adding pressure.

Transport – down from fair to poor

Spain’s transport sector continues to face significant challenges. Rising fuel and labour costs are putting pressure on profitability. Strong competition adds further pressure. Operators must also invest to meet environmental and decarbonisation targets. While demand remains resilient and supports moderate growth, many operators continue to struggle with tight margins.

The Americas: No changes since July 2026

Asia/Oceania: No changes since July 2026

What is the industry performance forecast per market?

The Atradius industry forecast by market provides an expert view of business performance and credit risk across different sectors and geographies. It covers 15 major industries in 37 representative economies.

Each sector-market combination is assigned an opinion - excellent, good, fair, poor, or bleak - based on the insights of Atradius specialised risk analysts.

• Excellent: Strong credit risk situation and robust business performance
• Good: Benign credit risk with performance above long-term trends
• Fair: Average credit risk and stable business performance
• Poor: Relatively high credit risk with below-trend performance
• Bleak: Poor credit risk situation and weak business performance

These underwriters work from centres of expertise around the world, ensuring that every assessment reflects local realities and is informed by on-the-ground knowledge. This approach highlights the strength of Atradius' risk management system and its ability to anticipate challenges in global trade.

Important note: While the chart offers a powerful overview, it is important to remember that risk does not reside in countries or sectors but in individual buyers. That is the true value of credit insurance: the ability of our underwriters to deliver a guaranteed, near-instant opinion on virtually any buyer worldwide, enabling businesses to trade with confidence.

To explore to strengthen your own credit risk strategy, get in touch with us and see how we can help you stay ahead.